- The median home sales price in Monmouth County is up 35% from 2020; in Ocean County, it's up 51%.
- The number of New Jersey real estate agents has climbed 13% since 2019, six times faster than the state's overall job growth.
- But home listings in New Jersey are down 29% from a year ago and 44% from 2019.
Realtors Joy Bearden and Dayna Graziano gathered dozens of brochures on a recent sunny spring day, drove to the Cedar Creek Estates neighborhood in Lacey, and walked house to house, hanging the flyers on doors and hoping for a lead.
The two from Keller Williams Shore Properties in Barnegat had eight qualified buyers eager to move into the neighborhood of single-family homes and manicured lawns, but nothing was for sale. The agents hoped for a chance encounter that would turn into a coveted listing.
"It makes you feel really bad when you see the buyer lose home after home," Bearden said. "And I can sense the frustration from my team."
As the spring selling season begins, Shore-area real estate agents are hamstrung by a lack of inventory that has left the housing market paralyzed, prompting them to find new strategies to find sellers.
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They are buying billboards, brushing up their social media accounts and setting up booths at community events. And they are finding few tactics that can replace word-of-mouth referrals.
It marks the latest chapter in a local housing market that went on a tear during the pandemic. In Monmouth County, the median home price of $615,000 was up 35% from 2020. In Ocean County, the median home price of $475,000 was up 51% during that time, according to the New Jersey Association of Realtors, a trade group.
Under contract in four days
Sellers are finding that they are in high demand.
Gene Carfora was helping his in-laws sell their waterfront home in Berkeley. When they were ready to list the home, they sifted through the unsolicited flyers from real estate agents, including one left on their door by Bearden.
They interviewed two agents before deciding to go with Bearden, who sounded familiar with the neighborhood and had plenty of experience, Carfora said.
Carfora, 49, and a contractor who lives in Lavallette, said he could sense the disappointment from agents who didn't get the contract. He could sympathize.
"Coming from the contracting business, we bid on contracts all the time and we put in a lot of time into estimates for new homes and larger renovations," Carfora said. "I understand."
The home received three offers and was under contract in four days, he said.
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The scene doesn't sound unusual. The Shore's housing market took off when the pandemic began in 2020 and added urgency to people who were ready to move from cities to the suburbs with the promise of more space. They had lots of incentives: record low interest rates and employers who allowed them to work remotely.
The real estate industry kept pace. The number of members of the National Realtors Association trade group in New Jersey increased from 54,992 in 2019 to 62,126 last year, or 13%, the group said, six times faster than the state's overall job growth.
Why homeowners are staying put
The agents are vying for business in a difficult market. Mortgage rates have risen sharply — from less than 3% in 2020 to above 6% this week — making it more expensive to borrow money. Demand from buyers has slowed, but still outpaces the supply of homes for sale.
One reason? Existing homeowners who refinanced at historically low interest rates during the pandemic have been locked in place, knowing that if they moved, they would need to borrow at a much higher cost, experts said.
The result: In March, there were 8,485 listings in New Jersey, down 29% from the same month a year ago and 44% before the pandemic in March 2019, according to data from the real estate company Zillow.
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"Inventory is severely depressed," said Jeffrey Otteau, managing partner and chief economist for the Otteau Group, a real estate consultant in Old Bridge. "There are very few houses on the market by historical standards. And the reason for that by and large is that trade-up buyers are sitting on the sidelines and not buying a more expensive house and in the process putting their current house up for sale because they're unwilling to give up their 2.5% interest on their current debt."
Real estate agents say the tight inventory is putting them to the test and they are resorting to both new and old tricks of the trade to line up listings.
Among them:
Billboards: Daniel Effenberger, an agent with O'Brien Realty in Atlantic Highlands, said in addition to contacting former clients, he advertises on billboards, including one on Route 36 in Atlantic Highlands. He declined to say how much it cost.
"I think it's very effective," Effenberger said. "It's a long-term process of just letting a certain area, a certain neighborhood know who you are. You might not necessarily get calls right away or even during (the campaign), but over time in Monmouth County in my experience, billboards are still effective."
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Social media: Kelly Fernandes, an agent with Heritage House Sotheby's International Realty in Rumson, has focused on building he brand through social media, using it as a form of high-tech networking. It has helped her reconnect with high school friends, who become clients.
Her Instagram account has a relatively modest 4,800 followers. But she uses it to lay out a story and build a community, showing off photos of the homes she sells, her seemingly satisfied customers, and the beauty of the region.
"I just closed on (a house) with two people I went to high school with, and if it wasn't for social media, they might not have been aware of what I was doing for a living," she said.
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Name recognition: Dana Cadena, an agent with Lifestyle International Realty , frequently attends chamber of commerce meetings and other in-person networking events. But she has gotten creative, too.
She recently took a booth at a food festival in Rahway, where she handed out bottled water branded with her agency's name. And she has teamed up with local businesses to sponsor Wi-Fi connections, using the password: Dana is your favorite agent.
"There's so many creative ways (to find clients), but I think it's still getting back to the relationship side of the business," Cadena said. "Not to sound corny, but the relationships are the currency, right?"
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Keep in touch: Kelly Zaccaro, an agent with Heritage House Sotheby's International Realty in Rumson, said there is no magic bullet. Many of her sellers are repeat clients she has kept in touch with over the years.
It's not unusual. More than one-third of sellers found their agent through a referral, and 27% use an agent with whom they previously worked, according to the National Association of Realtors.
"I just got an email from someone I sold a house to six years ago," Zaccaro said. "I try to think of how this might end, but I don't see it ending anytime soon. Because even if we go into a recession, there's still people that need to live somewhere."
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'It's very scary for them'
As the Federal Reserve Board's interest rate hikes take hold, Otteau, for one, thinks the economy could fall into a modest recession later in the year, increasing unemployment and slowing down the housing market.
But real estate agents are continuing to get multiple offers on many homes — if they can find them to list.
Joy Bearden and Dayna Graziano said they tried to mail out postcards, but they didn't get a big response. So about six months ago, they decided to try to take matters into their own hands and walk the neighborhoods every couple of weeks, like old-school salespeople.
"Most of the agents I speak with in the industry, and I've been doing this 20 years, they really have no inventory," Bearden said. "And it's very scary for them."
Michael L. Diamond is a business reporter who has been writing about the New Jersey economy and health care industry for more than 20 years. He can be reached at mdiamond@gannettnj.com.
