Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·7 min read
Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce EngandChristopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, as the eligibility period closes Friday, we discuss two last-minute limited/TV movie hopefuls.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re at the end of 2024 Emmys eligibility, and not without some last-minute entries. This week, Netflix added “Eric” to its stable of limited series contenders — joining fellow May release “A Man in Full,” as well as “Ripley,” “Griselda,” “Painkiller” and presumed frontrunner “Baby Reindeer.” Meanwhile, over at HBO, “The Great Lillian Hall” is here, a TV movie that puts Jessica Lange in contention for Best Limited/TV Movie Actress. It’s funny: Neither of these projects feels like they connected with critics and the late drops are always dicey when there are too many shows to watch in the first place. But I could see each landing acting nominations because of how the limited category has shaken out with “Shōgun” now competing for drama awards. Lange is the obvious one for “Lillian Hall,” playing an aging actress overcoming her increasing health issues while performing on Broadway. It’s a Big Actor Showcase (™) and in another decade with another academy, I think she’d be a top contender for recognition. Less so this year, but in a race with only four set contenders (Jodie Foster,Brie Larson,Juno TempleandSofia Vergara), I could see Lange getting one of the final two slots. The same logic can apply toBenedict Cumberbatch, the lead of “Eric,” who is probably most thankful for the “Shōgun” exit because it left two lead actor positions presumably open for other contenders. I don’t have either of these fine stars in my predictions just yet, instead going with some underdogs who rightfully refuse to go away. I put Nicole Kidmanin for “Expats” whenAnna Sawaijumped categories, while my acting lineup now includes SAG nomineeDavid Oyelowofor “Lawman: Bass Reeves” and “The Sympathizer” breakout who should’ve really broken out more,Hoa Xuande. I’m not really certain either actor can make it in — particularly Xuande, since the buzz on “The Sympathizer” was more of a whisper despite its creative success. Joyce, how do you see this last-minute projects affecting the race, if at all?
joyceeng: I don’t have either in either, and all I’ll say is I watched “Eric” before I watched “Baby Reindeer” last month. Regardless of quality of the projects or the merits of the performances, I think these late drops are just tough when there are more shows than ever and we know for a fact that voters are watching fewer shows than ever. And in “The Great Lillian Hall’s” case, TV movies are not really en vogue these days. Sure, Daniel Radcliffe got in last year, but “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” was a different flavor and it had a way longer runway, having debuted in November 2022 and gone through the guild circuit with several nominations, including a PGA win, so we knew the industry was into it. We didn’t even know HBO had acquired “The Great Lillian Hall” until 17 days ago. That being said, as you know, I added Tony Shalhoub in one of my vacant “Shōgun” slots. Yes, “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” is a TV movie — it’s in the title! — but this is obviously a different case (no pun intended) since the man won three Emmys for “Monk.” That was a different era, definitely, but the film hit all three of PGA, WGA and SAG. In actress, I took a flier on three-time Emmy winner and SAG nominee Uzo Aduba for “Painkiller.” She could be this year’s Kathryn Hahn, a past nominee/winner who gets in for a show most people have written off. But she has the bonus of a SAG bid as well. I think the bigger question is: Have you added Joey King yet?
More from GoldDerby
SEE Experts slugfest: Stellar ‘Hacks’ Season 3 finale sets up Emmy showdown with ‘The Bear’
Christopher Rosen: I haven’t added Joey King yet but I feel like she’s got a more realistic shot at getting nominated than Kidman or Aduba, so maybe I should. Just typing about this, I have to say, I’m more excited about the limited series race than ever because without “Shōgun” here anything does feel possible (at least until Phase 2 when “Baby Reindeer” will presumably dominate). You’ve almost convinced me to put Shalhoub in there and I guess I would in lieu of Xuande. “The Sympathizer” failed to launch and I’m left wondering if that could mean Robert Downey Jr. misses. We’ve got him at the top of our picks and with good reason because he’s so good on the show in multiple roles and it’s a flashy performance. But what if he’s not anyone’s favorite, what if the support for the show is even smaller than it appears, and what if he is a shocking snub in favor of… well, I don’t know? But is predicting a snub there the no-guts-no-glory moment of the year or just a stupid overthink that I’ll eventually talk myself into?
joyceeng: I think RDJ will get in, especially because the category is in such disarray and I know I’m not the only one scratching my head as to how to fill out the seven slots. But the win feels like it’s slipping further away with each passing week. He’s also taken a backseat to the promo, ceding the spotlight to Xuande, mostly, and Sandra Oh, outside of the obligatory premiere events. He’s doing Actors on Actors with Foster (“Home for the Holidays” reunion!!!!!), but I can see him keeping the campaigning at a simmer too. He also didn’t over-campaign for the Oscar, but I think we all attributed that to him stepping off the gas because of his locked status. But perhaps there’s not enough passion for any of the other nominees, so he just wins by default? Because he’s just there and we expected him to? Speaking of Oh, I dropped her even as spots opened up with “Shōgun” defecting. She is expectedly great with the little material she’s given, but with the show’s failure to launch, I don’t know if she’ll make it.
SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Will ‘Shōgun’ dominate the drama categories?
Christopher Rosen: I don’t have her in anymore because I’m now ride-or-die for Chloe Guidry. We’ve mentioned her here before, and I will keep mentioning her until she’s either justifiably nominated or egregiously snubbed. Guidry, to me, is the standout performer on “Under the Bridge,” just a fully formed breakout performance that feels like if Jennifer Lawrence had starred in “Thirteen”? I adore her work on the show and she’d make for a great story as a nominee. I could definitely see matching nominations for her and Javon Walton, particularly since the supporting categories are so open and “Under the Bridge” has been watched — perhaps more than some of the other potential nominees — even if it doesn’t have a big online footprint just yet. Joyce, what dark horses are you hoping to see get into the race now that the dust has settled?
joyceeng: Remember “Manhunt”? No? Well, lemme tell you, Anthony Boyle was stellar as John Wilkes Booth for someone who only knew of him through “The Simpsons.” His take on the narcissistic actor/murderer was delicious, but that show made even less noise than “The Sympathizer” did, so I don’t have high hopes. He’s also higher in the odds for his other Apple TV+ show, “Hunks in the Air,” so that kind of says it all.
PREDICTthe 2024 Emmy nominees by July 17
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
Best of GoldDerby
Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
